Nadir – home

Private research project

Nadir tests trading ideas until they break. Or hold.

Nadir is a private, research-driven system. Every idea is pre-registered before it is tested, tried on data it has never seen, and reported whatever the outcome. Most ideas fail. That is the point.

The project and its signals are private. This site shows the method, the research log and hashed commitments – never buy or sell signals, and nothing here is a recommendation about any security.

How an idea is tested

Loading the research log…

The test ladder

An idea moves up one step only if it passes criteria that were written down – and hashed – before the test began. Nothing is tuned after the fact.

  1. 1

    Pre-registration

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    Hypothesis, data, metric, pass threshold and test window are fixed in writing. The SHA-256 hash is published here before anything runs.

  2. 2

    Backtest

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    One run on history, with realistic costs and delays. A failed run is logged, not retuned and rerun.

  3. 3

    Holdout

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    A period that was locked away during development. The idea sees it exactly once.

  4. 4

    Test period

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    Months of forward running on paper. Every decision is committed before the market has happened.

  5. 5

    Accepted

    –

    Kept and watched. It can still be retired if it stops behaving like it did in the tests.

Why most ideas fall
Many tries
Test enough ideas and some look brilliant by chance. Pre-registration and a single holdout run keep luck from passing as skill.
Frictions
Fees, spreads and delays eat small edges. They are included from the first backtest, not added at the end.
Markets change
What worked in one regime often stops. The test period is there to find out before anything is trusted.

Research log

Everything that has been tested, including what fell and why. Entries are never removed; every revision is counted.

Loading the log…

Track record

Before a test or a decision, Nadir publishes the SHA-256 hash of its full text. The text is revealed afterwards. If even one character were changed later, the hash would no longer match – so you can check that nothing was written after the fact.

Loading commitments…

Select a commitment to see its hash and, once revealed, verify it.

Verify without this website

Download the revealed file and hash it yourself. The result must equal the published hash.

curl -s https://nadirsignal.com/api/public/reveal/N | sha256sum

On Windows: certutil -hashfile nadir-commitment-N.json SHA256. Each revealed file also contains the hash of the commitment before it, so the whole sequence is chained – removing or reordering an entry breaks the chain.

Waitlist

If any part of Nadir ever opens up, the people on this list hear first. Your email address is the only thing stored.

  • You get a confirmation mail. Nothing counts until you click the link; unconfirmed addresses are deleted after 48 hours.
  • Every mail has an unsubscribe link, and unsubscribing deletes the address.
  • No tracking pixels, no newsletters about other things, no sharing. Details in the privacy policy.

Not open yet

The waitlist opens once confirmation mail is set up. Check back soon.